So, last week was a mitigated disaster for this article. In fact, it was a disaster for any projection system who was conservative in its projections due to Week 1 and Week 2 producing very few big games. Well, Week 3 certainly blew that up. It seems almost every big fantasy star had an explosion this week. At least players regressed to the mean and now we have some semblance of reality within projections again. The first two weeks were very weird. Also, Kareem Hunt is really good at football. With that being said, let’s kick off Love & Hate Week 4!
As I said last week, this article is going to compare the overall consensus of several websites projections and compare the consensus to our projections at Daily Fantasy Aces and I will discuss why I love or hate the player this week. As a reminder, these are PPR, 6 point TD projections (including QB). Adjust accordingly if needed.
Matt Ryan has not been an MVP caliber QB this year.
Matt Ryan (ATL, QB)
My Projection: 18.05
Difference: 22% lower (HATE)
I didn’t have a quarterback in last week’s article, and I start things off with one this week. On the season, the reigning MVP has 4 TD passes and 3 INT (all last week). He’s failed to post 300-yard games in back to back weeks and barely escaped with a win against the Lions, and if Matt Ryan had his way the Falcons would have lost that game. He definitely tried to lose. Thanks Golden Tate. He’s taken 7 sacks in 100 dropbacks, which is the largest percent he’s ever had in his career (Posted a 6.5% last year which is the highest over a full season). Julio Jones has been effectively shut down this year, making Ryan target TE Hooper and WR Sanu, while the Falcons have also dialed up more runs. They welcome the Bills to the Dome this week, where the Bills bring the best defense in the NFL to their doorstep. Bills coach Sean McDermott was the defensive coordinator for the Panthers and is very familiar with the Falcons. I hate Matt Ryan this week.
Joe Mixon: The third wheel on Marvin Lewis’s bicycle.
Joe Mixon (CIN, RB)
My Projection: 11.75
Difference: 11% lower (HATE)
One thing springs to mind when thinking of Joe Mixon and that is the television show “How I Met Your Mother”. Anyone who is a fan of the show will understand what I am about to say. Joe Mixon reminds me a lot of Jason Segel. Someone whose talent far outweighs his usage. Marshall outclassed everyone on the show in comedic ability and sly delivery but played third fiddle to Ted and Barney. Joe Mixon is that guy right now in the Cincinnati backfield (Gio is obviously Barney while Hill is Ted). The Bengals continue to use a three-man committee, and even though Mixon eclipsed 100 net yards last week, the Bengals still have not committed to using him as an every-down player. That’s why our projections have him just under the consensus and why I hate him this week. Stay away until the Bengals commit to Mixon which should be next week.
Pryor added “Sr” to his name. In 2017, he’s running like an old man.
Terrelle Pryor Sr. (WAS, WR)
My Projection: 8.89
Difference: 27% lower (HATE)
I have Pryor on my fantasy team (as well as Mixon). I debated cutting him this week after consecutive no-shows. Kirk Cousins hasn’t made that connection with Pryor that he had with Garcon and DJax, or that Pryor had with Carr in Oakland. Only seeing 8 total targets the last week brings a lot of uncertainty to Pryor’s every week usage, and that’s why he can’t be trusted. The consensus has Pryor at 12-13, while I have him under 9. Unless he scores, I think 9.00 is too high for him right now.
Madden cover athlete in 2019. Calling it now.
Todd Gurley II (LAR, RB)
My Projection: 23.68
Difference: 33% higher (LOVE)
Todd Gurley is the Rams offense. Gurley leads the team in touches, including targets. He’s doing everything he possibly can to carry this team on his back after being woefully neglected and abused by Jeff Fisher last year. Sean McVay has awoken a sleeping giant. The consensus has Gurley around 18-19 and we have him a stiff 6 points higher here. We have Gurley as the second best chance to score a TD (behind only Devonta Freeman) this week, with 4 receptions for 37 yards in the air. That’s 7.7 points right there. The Rams are a sleeper team this year and they could easily sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard in the NFC. If that happens, watch out. The Greatest Show on Turf is alive and well my friends. Gurley needs to start being discussed an MVP candidate.
Mr. Fitzgerald has been spectacular this year on his way to the Hall of Fame.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, WR)
My Projection: 16.47
Difference: 11% higher (LOVE)
The veteran wide receiver is still as good as ever. Fitz lit up the Cowboys on Monday night even though the Cardinals lost. He leads the league in targets in the red-zone, and he’s averaging 11 targets per game which is his highest mark since 2010. He has back to back 100+ reception seasons, and led the league in that category last year. He’s not quite on pace for 100 so far, but he’s been one of the most used receivers in the NFL. In his career against the 49ers, he’s averaging over 17 points per game. I think he exceeds expectations again this week. At only $6100 on Draftkings in a prime matchup, I have him in PPR and DFS lineups this week.
The Most Electrifying Man in Sports-Entertainment!
Chris Thompson (WAS, RB)
My Projection: 18.73
Difference: 62% higher (LOVE)
Sometimes our projections take a week or two to adjust to consensus. Sometimes the consensus takes a week or two to adjust to current season usage. Last year Tyreek Hill played over his projection week in and week out because they refused to adjust for his skill set. Chris Thompson is that man in 2017. The beneficiary of Jamison Crowder and Terrelle Pryor having down seasons is this man right here. Last week we projected Perine having a big week, and he did okay, but Chris Thompson stole the show, again. He’s the third highest scorer for running backs this year. He’s got 350 yards from scrimmage, with 4 TD. He’s also dominating with 19 targets through only 3 games. The consensus has the most exciting man in the NFL at around 10-11 points which is ridiculous. Could he have a down week? Absolutely. Every one does. He’s averaging 11 looks a game (targets+rushes), so he’s is as involved in the offense as any one else and he’s the only one making plays. Going to Arrowhead Stadium is a tough task for anyone, but Thompson will make it work.
The Daily Fantasy Aces 