This is a topic I wanted to explore last season but never fully explained it. The secret to daily fantasy sports is not just fantasy star player output, but, how do you balance points against cost when building lineups? This is a question every DFS player is faced with every week. What is the first thing you check when you make your lineup? Opponent? Average points per week? Or cost? I check cost, then matchup. Cost is the single most important aspect of daily fantasy in comparison to their points. Through cost, we develop “value” and value is derived from “Points Per Dollar” expected. You can’t get all the best players in the league on your team every week, but you can always get the best values in your lineup every week.
Points Per Dollar is calculated by dividing cost (DraftKings dollars) by projected points and multiplying by 1,000. Players above 2.7-3.0 are considered a good value, with 3.3+ considered elite value. Players below 2.2 are considered poor value for their cost. (Please note: In most cash games (not tournaments), elite production players can have values as low as 1.9 and still return value due to their volume of points. These strategies are for guaranteed prize pool “GPP” tournaments only!)
I’m going to break down each position and highlight this weeks top “value” based on Points Per Dollar and four others in quick succession so anyone making lineups
Quarterback:
- Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo (vs DEN), Cost $4,900. Value: 3.2
Everyone who has read this blog the last two seasons knows The Daily Fantasy Aces loves Tyrod Taylor. Our projections are not biased in any way (in fact I’m a lowly Jets fan), but Taylor always finds himself in our weekly DFS Top Plays ranking. I know what you’re thinking “But Ace, Taylor is facing an elite Broncos defense!” You’d be right. But this is in Buffalo. Denver is traveling across country and playing at 1 PM (11 AM Mountain Standard Time). Plus Taylor plays a lot better at home in his career. But that is beside the point of this. Based on his projection against his price tag, his VALUE is over 3.0 which is considered just under elite for DFS. He’s the top value for the position this week. Whether or not you like to weight risk against reward, especially at a deep position is up to you!
2. Deshaun Watson , Houston (@NE), Cost $4,700. Value: 3.1
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas (@ARI), Cost $5,700. Value: 3.1
4. Josh McCown, New York Jets, (vs MIA), Cost $4,500. Value: 3.1
5. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville, (vs BAL), Cost $4,400. Value 3.0
Running Back:
- Lamar Miller, Houston, (@ NE), Cost: $5,000. Value: 3.5
This is a huge value today. You may think his cost is supressed for playing in New England against a notoriously stingy defense, but Patriots fans know something you may not: Their defense is not as good as it used to be. They can’t tackle. The team has jettisoned too many leaders and veterans. The team got gashed by Kansas City at home two weeks ago. Lamar Miller is very familiar with the Patriots as well. This value is considered elite for the week and ownership should be low due to his opponent’s pure reputation.
2. Frank Gore, Indianapolis, (vs CLE), Cost $4,200. Value: 3.0
3. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City, (@ LAC), Cost 8,000. Value: 2.9
4. Ameer Abdullah, Detroit, (vs ATL), Cost $4,700. Value: 2.9
5. Tarik Cohen, Chicago, (vs PIT), Cost $5,600. Value: 2.8
Wide Receiver:
- Rashard Higgins, Cleveland, (@IND), Cost: $4,000. Value: 4.1
I’ve discussed this at length in almost every article I’ve done this week. Higgins should rip apart the Colts defense. Only reason he’s so cheap is due to his small sample size. That’s all there is to it. Colts defense is TERRIBLE.
2. Jermaine Kearse, New York Jets (vs MIA), Cost: $4,600. Value: 3.3
3. Jarvis Landry, Miami, (@NYJ), Cost: $6,800 Value: 2.8
4. Rishard Matthews, (vs SEA), Cost: $4,200. Value: 2.8
5. DeAndre Hopkins, (@NE), Cost: $6,200. Value: 2.8
Tight End:
- Jason Witten, Dallas (@ARI), Cost: $4,500. Value: 3.9
I’ve also discussed this at length this week as well. He’s in great shape this week, being the league leader in receptions and scoring in back to back games. His cost is not reflective of his season, or even his last 8 games in total. Great value here. I personally perfer Ertz for $500 more but the value doesn’t lie.
2. Jesse James, Pittsburgh (@CHI), Cost: $3,300. Value: 3.8
3. Jack Doyle, Indianapolis (vs CLE), Cost $3,500, Value: 3.4
4. Zach Miller, Chicago (vs PIT), Cost: $3,000. Value: 3.4
5. Charles Clay, Buffalo (vs DEN), Cost: $3,400. Value: 3.1
VEGAS LINES:
Buffalo (+3)
Carolina (-5.5)
Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Detroit (+3)
Cleveland (-1.5)
Tampa Bay (-1)
New England (-13.5)
Miami (-6)
Philadelphia (-6)
Tennessee (-2.5)
Cincinnati (+7.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Washington (+3)
Three Team 6 point Teaser: PIT (-1.5), CLE (+5.5), KC (+3)
The Daily Fantasy Aces 